Autoregressive Cascades on Random Networks

This paper considers a model for cascades on random networks in which the cascade propagation at any node depends on the load at the failed neighbor, the degree of the neighbor as well as the load at that node. Each node in the network bears an initial load that is below the capacity of the node. The trigger for the cascade emanates at a single node or a small fraction of the nodes from some external shock. Upon failure, the load at the failed node gets divided randomly and added to the existing load at those neighboring nodes that have not yet failed. Subsequently, a neighboring node fails if its accumulated load exceeds its capacity. The failed node then plays no further part in the process. The cascade process stops as soon as the accumulated load at all nodes that have not yet failed is below their respective capacities. The model is shown to operate in two regimes, one in which the cascade terminates with only a finite number of node failures. In the other regime there is a positive probability that the cascade continues indefinitely. Bounds are obtained on the critical parameter where the phase transition occurs.